FOLLOWING PUTIN – OVERNIGHT:  He's the man of the hour, or the thug of the hour.  We're awaiting the festivities in Moscow Monday that will mark the end of the Second World War in Europe.  The speculation is really flying over what Putin will announce, if anything.   Ukrainians are on edge.  From Fox:

Russian President Vladimir Putin could soon be "doubling down" in an attempt to emerge victorious in Ukraine despite the death of over 25,000 Russian soldiers and mounting economic sanctions by the international community, a senior U.S. intelligence official said.

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns announced Saturday that Putin is optimistic about the war’s outcome despite historic losses and failed attempts to capture Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv. 

"He's in a frame of mind in which he doesn't believe he can afford to lose," Burns said during a Financial Times event in Washington, Reuters reported. "I think he's convinced right now that doubling down still will enable him to make progress."

While military experts thought the war could have swiftly ended, Ukraine’s spirit remains unbroken despite more than 70 days of combat and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has won over the help of countries around the world, helping his country’s chances in the war. 

The CIA director also said a potential loss would have devastating effects on Putin "because he staked so much on the choices that he made to launch this invasion," AFP reported.

Burns said he did not think Russia would pursue using nuclear weapons to win the war and clarified that Western intelligence efforts did not see any sign of Putin deploying them. 

We don't see, as an intelligence community, practical evidence at this point of Russian planning for the deployment or even potential use of tactical nuclear weapons," Burns said, as AFP reported.

He said intelligence services would "not take lightly those possibilities" and that the CIA would remain diligent in surveilling Russia’s interest in using nukes, according to Reuters. 

"So we stay very sharply focused as an intelligence service ... on those possibilities at a moment when the stakes are very high for Russia," he said.

COMMENT:  One element that has been somewhat overlooked is the fact that the United States Congress is remarkably united in supporting Ukraine.  This can be attributed less to the ideology of the cause than to the sheer guts displayed by the Ukrainians and the brutality of the Russian assault. The TV pictures rule much of our thinking.  In turn, American support has convinced European nations to give more aid to the Ukrainians than they'd originally intended.  Even Germany, ever sensitive to its dependence on Russian energy, has now taken a deeper plunge in aiding the Ukrainians. 

The quality of the assistance is also key.  The Javelin anti-tank missiles, supplied by both the United States and European countries, have performed brilliantly, reducing the advantage that Moscow had in armored warfare.  That advantage is being further eroded by the new arrival of the American 155-mm Howitzers, which are equipped with rocket-assisted shells and advanced targeting ability.  And it's clear that American intelligence information, probably based on satellites, has been invaluable.

But the questions remain:  Despite initial losses, what do the Russians want, and what will they accept?  Stand by.

May 7, 2022